Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Zale Corporation (ZLC) Straddle

Zale Straddle 7.50 May 13 2013



Zale Corporation (ZLC) 4.83          Straddle May 13 2013 7.50

11/13/12 Straddle Strike 7.50      Call         Ask         1.15      
                                                    Put         Ask         1.80
                Net Debit:                                                -2.95

11/27/12 Straddle Strike 7.50      Call         Bid          .20
                                                    Put         Bid          2.70
                Net Credit:                                                2.90
                                                                     Short     -.5      
    
Black Scholes hypothetical break even upon date, 11/13/12, straddle buy is slightly short $-5

Sell back               Call         Bid          .20
Exercise                Put          Bid          2.70 @ Strike 7.50 Trading Price 4.83
7.5 – 4.83 = 2.67 + .20 = 2.87
                Net Credit:                                                 2.87
                                                                      Short     -.8

Exercise is short $-8 according to hypothetical Black Scholes upon buy date 11/13/12

Why? Volatility increase does not outweigh Theta decrease, yet.

Upon:  11/27/2012 Net Delta: -49.737 Gamma: 27.679 Theta: -0.404 Vega: 2.148

90 day HV:           91.99%                  one week ago   67.54%                  Increase               24.55%
90 day IV:            63.58%                  one week ago   62.26%                  Increase               1.32%

Straddle price should rise.

This is a good substitute for buying the stock. Since the price is so low. A $295 dollar hedge to own 100 shares at 7.50, if the stock was bought at that price would be $750. Then the stock falls 267 dollars to $483. Owning the shares would have been roughly a 30% loss, where owning the straddle is only a $5 loss.

Logical Action:

ZLC Strangle Strike: 5.00 and 7.50


11/29/12 Straddle Strike 7.50       Call         Bid          .25
                                                     Put         Bid          2.70
                Net Credit:                                                  2.90
                                                                  Even          0

Sell         Call         Bid          .25
Buy        Call         Ask         .90          Strike 5.00
Hold       Put         Bid          2.70
                Net Debit:                                                           -.335

Strangle break evens have narrowed.

12/20/12 ZLC Strangle Strike 5.00 and 7.50


12/20/12 Strangle Strike 7.50 and 5.00
                                                7.50        Call         Bid          .40
                                                5.00        Put         Bid          3.20
                Net Credit:                                                          3.60
                Profit:                                                                   $25


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